Microsoft isn't gone - and the REAL Origami Experience

In response to a forum post that triggered this speculation of mine, Microsoft told us they're not gone after all. From Jeff:

Hey all, I just want to let everyone know that we aren't leaving you in the dark. I'm the test lead for Origami Experience 2.0 and I just want everyone to know that the reason why the forum seems to have gone silent is because the entire team is heads down working on the next version. We are very excited about the new features and are working very hard to make sure we provide a great experience to our users.

I want to thank those users who have kept this forum alive - especially CTitanic, who has been a true star and leader in the UMPC revolution. I would also like to recognize ThoughtFix and JJK. But you all provide valuable feedback.

We have not gone dark, we have not abandoned our users. We are coming, but we're working hard to make it great.

Wow! I got a personal shout! Thanks Jeff! You're right about CTitanic and JKK though... they don't just do the commentary and reviews like I do: They work their butts off to IMPROVE how people use their UMPCs too!

Now how about the REAL Origami Experience? Well, it's been a good long time since I looked at the market for these devices, so let's examine, shall we?

• Style! The Medion/Gigabyte, OQO 02, HTC Shift, and Samsung Q1 Ultra all have hardware keyboards of one sort or another. None of these are good for long typing, but all are good for light Email, instant messaging, and notes. This represents a shift back from the slate tablet form factor. As much as I personally love slates, the market is slow to adopt them.
• Market! The buyers of 1st generation UMPCs, in my experience, have been people who want PC convenience and applications without laptop size. Most of my communication with these people have been over the Internet, so the perception of "heavy internet users" is skewed. Still, I think that Internet use (especially Web 2.0) is driving behind UMPC adoption.
• Entertainment! Personally, I very much enjoy Origami Experience, especially paired with my Jabra BT 8010. However, in a Microsoft-started survey, it seems most Origami Experience users prefer slimmer, faster media players. Even so, once inside the Origami Experience it is a pleasure to use. Just like adapting to "slate" computing, adapting to a non-standard Windows program launcher and media player is taking some time. If there was functionality or speed within Origami Experience that wasn't previously present in Windows, use would certainly rise.
• Hardware Demands! Manufacturers were fast to roll user feedback into product design. "Keepers" were generally kept like Synaptics mouse pointers, thumb scanners, and standard card slots. "Requests" like webcams, digital cameras, keyboards, and soft-touch screens were added. A standard 1GB of memory should be the base and 2GB upgrades should be available, especially with Vista.
  

So we see what's happening on the UMPC world, but we have to ask what is NOT happening. Inking optimization for business application is still catching up. Major creative applications, otherwise ideal for tablet PCs, are too heavy in CPU and memory requirements for current UMPCs. There are some cases of larger deployments in industrial settings, but those are few and far between.

This means that the major appeal for the UMPC is the Web 2.0 generation. From the college-bound 18 year old to the guy in his mid thirties who is still flexible about what technology should be. Internet community members. YouTube. MySpace. Twitter. Instant Messages. Skype. How will the market get a UMPC in the messenger bag of each of these people?

Well, they're trying. Prices need to fall. Battery life needs to rise. Durability and style must find a balance. Applications need to be written. I've been a UMPC owner for about a year now and still don't know where it's going, but it's certainly going SOMEWHERE and I can't wait to see what happens when it gets there.